Stories When the Weather Changes, Can Supply Keep Up?

For many food manufacturers, palm oil is a key ingredient. It shapes product consistency, supports production planning, helps manage cost, and strengthens long-term supply security.

But as climate patterns become increasingly unpredictable, one question matters more than ever:  how do we secure a reliable supply?

What happens in the plantation eventually reaches the factory floor. When weather affects yields, it can influence supply planning, sourcing decisions, and long-term business relationships.

At Golden Agri-Resources (GAR), we believe resilience starts at the source. One of our researchers tackling that challenge is Reni Subawati Kusumaningtyas, Agrophysiology Research Officer at our SMART Research Institute (SMARTRI). She has spent more than a decade studying how oil palms respond to drought and changing climate conditions.

Reni’s journey with SMARTRI began as a research intern soon after university. What started as an opportunity to apply what she had learned grew into a career spanning nearly two decades, driven by a fascination with how plants respond to their environment.

Why drought matters beyond the plantation

Drought is one of the biggest climate risks facing oil palm. Unlike many weather events, its effects are often delayed. A dry season today can reduce yields months later, affecting future production rather than only the current harvest.

Oil palms rely on a steady supply of water to grow and produce fruit. As water deficits increase, the palms produce fewer fruit bunches, making future yields less consistent.

Research by SMARTRI shows that every 100 mm of water deficit can reduce production by an estimated 8–10% in the following year. Across Indonesia’s palm oil industry, drought-related productivity losses could exceed US$4.5 billion annually.

For growers, this means lower harvests and reduced income. For food manufacturers, lower yields upstream can create supply uncertainty, increase price volatility, and make long-term planning more difficult.

Turning research into innovation

Resilience starts long before drought arrives. That is why we invest in long-term research to help growers adapt to a changing climate.

One outcome of that investment is the DxP Dami Mas MTK (Moderate Toleran Kekeringan) seeds. Developed by SMARTRI, it is Indonesia’s first commercially approved moderately drought-tolerant oil palm planting material.

More than a decade of work and field testing confirmed its performance before it entered the market.

During drought, DxP Dami Mas MTK consistently produced at least 12% higher yields than standard planting materials. During severe climate events, including the 2015 El Niño and the 2018 Indian Ocean Dipole, its yield advantage exceeded 25%.

To Reni, success was never about creating a seed that could eliminate drought.

“We cannot promise a seed that is 100% drought-proof,” Reni explained. “But with MTK, the decline in yield caused by drought can be reduced significantly. That is where the value lies.”

The question that kept her going

The story of these seeds did not begin in a laboratory. It began with an observation.

In 2010, our researchers noticed something unusual in Lampung, Indonesia. A handful of palms continued producing high yields despite severe drought. Instead of treating it as a one-off, the team wanted to understand why.

For Reni, that observation sparked a question that would shape the next decade of her work.

She wanted to understand what was happening beneath the surface. What allowed some palms to keep photosynthesising when water became scarce? Could those traits help growers better withstand a changing climate?

That, she says, is the joy of research.

“Some people think it’s about finding answers. Most days, it’s about learning to ask better questions.”

Ten years, one goal

Oil palms do not reveal their secrets quickly. A promising result in the nursery can take years to prove in the field. Every promising discovery had to survive another growing season, another drought, and another round of validation.

“There were definitely moments when we wondered whether we were on the right track. But that’s part of research. You keep asking questions, collecting evidence and letting the evidence guide you.”

It’s an approach that has steered her from the beginning.

“My supervisor often said, ‘A researcher may make mistakes, but must never lie.’ That has stayed with me throughout my career. Scientific research must always be grounded in integrity.”

More than a decade later, the answer they had been searching for culminated in the DxP Dami Mas MTK seed.

For Reni, the achievement is not the seed itself. It is the difference it can make for the people who rely on it.

“Through this innovation, we hope to support a more resilient and sustainable palm oil industry,” she said. “But even more than that, I hope this work can help reduce income loss for farmers when drought occurs.”

Just as others encouraged her early in her career, Reni hopes to inspire the next generation of researchers.

“Every breakthrough starts with someone asking a question. I’m grateful to work in an environment that encourages curiosity and gives people the opportunity to challenge ideas and turn them into solutions. I hope more women will see that there is a place for them to grow and make a real difference through science.”

Future-proofing the palm oil supply

Climate volatility will continue to shape agriculture in the years ahead. No single innovation can eliminate the impact of extreme weather. But long-term investment in research can help reduce its effects and strengthen resilience across the supply chain.

For GAR, DxP Dami Mas MTK is one example of that investment. It builds on years of investigation to help growers adapt to changing conditions. In turn, it gives customers greater confidence in the long-term reliability of their palm oil supply.

For procurement teams, the question is no longer whether climate change will affect agriculture. It is how suppliers are preparing for it. The difference lies in those investing today to build a more resilient supply for tomorrow.

Explore more innovations helping growers adapt to a changing world.